College Basketball Picks

UConn's 24-3 record has been by the skin of its teeth. The Huskies have just nine ATS wins this season and have failed to cover four straight and 11 of 13. UConn has suffered its first two Big East losses in its last four games as its defense has abandoned its shooting. 

The Wolverines have dominated high-level competiton, picking up double-digit wins away from home against Top-15 teams in Purdue, Gonzaga, and Michigan State. In just Quad 1 games, Michigan has been better at hitting threes (36.2 3PT% compared to 31.2 3PT%) and defending inside the arc (41.9% opponent 2PT% to 46.5%) than the Blue Devils. Duke is heavily reliant on do-everything freshman Cameron Boozer to ignite the offense and Michigan has the bigs to slow him down. On the other side of the ball, UM has multiple scoring options that will allow Dusty May to ride the hot hand.

Michigan's top-ranked defense and massive frontcourt will stifle Duke’s paint-reliant offense. Riding an 11-game win streak, the Wolverines’ superior depth and top 5 scoring attack will provide the consistency on both ends of the floor to cover this small spread on a neutral floor in D.C.

Illinois not only has the highest adjusted offensive efficiency in the country — it has the highest one in the history of the KenPom era. They’re far more talented and well-assembled than UCLA.

The Illini (16-11 ATS) are a top-5 team overall and pose a serious threat to cut down the nets as the calendar nears March. That puts them in a different tier than UCLA (10-16 ATS), a program in an even darker place after coach Mick Cronin’s mid-week blowup. 

The Illini are 7-1 straight up on the road, covering the spread in six of those contests. 

Collin Chandler was incorrectly priced at +137 to make 3+ treys against Georgia. He knocked down six. 

The market still hasn’t adjusted, so we’ll run it back against an Auburn defense allowing opponents to shoot 40% from deep since January 1.

Auburn has struggled to defend the perimeter all season, and Chandler’s locked in. He’s shooting 48.5% from deep in SEC play, including 18 of 31 attempts in his last six games.

Chandler’s connected on 3+ from beyond the arc in four straight games. I can’t pass up plus-odds on him continuing that run against Auburn’s anemic perimeter defense.

The Iowa State Cyclones are 23-3 after wins against No. 2 Houston and No. 8 Kansas. The BYU Cougars have struggled after Richie Saunders tore his ACL last weekend. They needed 39 points from Rob Wright to edge a subpar Colorado team at home and only avoided getting blown out by Arizona because AJ Dybantsa erupted for 35 points. They already had depth issues after sixth-man Dallin Hall suffered a season-ending injury and the loss of their heart-and-soul in Saunders is huge. Unless they get outlier performances from Dybantsa and Wright to make up for a mediocre supporting cast, ISU will roll.

Iowa State’s elite defense travels well, as it recently held Houston to 67 points. With BYU’s Richie Saunders out for the season and key rotation pieces sidelined, the Cougars lack the bench depth to sustain a high-possession track meet. Expect a slow, half-court defensive grind that stays well below the game total.